2025 has been an unusually turbulent year for Hollywood and so too has this Oscars season seen its fair share of controversy. Indeed, the amount of posturing and strategic leaks and gossip has been truly impressive if you’re into that sort of thing. Intimacy coordinators, AI drawings and accents, a movie that tackles trans issues and Mexican drug cartels that no one actually likes but somehow got the most nominations, not to mention that film’s trans star attempting to tweet through controversy (always a bad idea). On top of that, you’ve got a town still reeling from wildfires not too long ago, plus a release schedule that was strangled by 2023 writers and actors strikes. I don’t even want to know how the famously liberal Hollywood elites will react to the last few weeks of political mayhem, and yet I suppose we’ll find out.
What all of this means is that there are several very tight margins in several categories. There are several near locks, as always, but awards season has seen some topsy turvy swings in sentiment that means some of the big awards are up in the air. This would usually be the mark of an interesting night… if anyone had seen or cared about the nominated movies. I’m being a little facetious here, but we’re certainly a far cry from last year’s Barbenheimer juggernaut.
The ceremony itself has had some strange changes too. First and seemingly most welcome is that they’re skipping the best song performances this year. Which sounds great (often my least favorite part of the broadcast), except that they’re still replacing it with music (something about a medley of the songs performed by Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande and a Queen Latifah performance celebrating Quincy Jones). Some of the big awards were going to have the “Fab 5” format where previous winners would praise the current nominees, but that’s apparently been put on hold (perhaps due to aforementioned nominee’s tweets?) They’ll just show clips, which, honestly, is the way to go anyway. Finally, Conan O’Brien is hosting, and I’ve always enjoyed his schtick, so I’m looking forward to that.
It’s also time for the annual reminder that the Oscars broadcast is the biggest source of income for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which is actually a very useful organization. As Steven Soderbergh noted a few years ago, what the Academy does for film archiving and preservation alone should be praised, and it’s all paid for by the broadcast. People love to complain about the Oscars, but that’s kinda fun in itself, and it’s not like any mainstream awards program wouldn’t court controversy or criticism in some way. Actually putting on the show is difficult and it does have a lot of benefits for the industry and cinema as a whole. Anyway, let’s look at the categories and make some predictions:
2025 Oscars Predictions
Best Picture: Anora. It’s got the momentum and has won several precursor awards, and it will probably due well in the instant runoff voting system (and its probably one of the better of the nominees, even if it isn’t especially my thing). Conclave has enough buzz that it could potentially pull off an upset, but I think it’s really lost momentum. Similarly, The Brutalist had buzz at some point, but it’s probably dampened by the AI controversy and the actual length of the movie (I wonder how many voters actually watched the whole thing?)
Best Director: Sean Baker for Anora. I think we’re back to matching Best Picture and Best Director again, though there’s an off chance that Brady Corbet will pull off an upset.
Best Actress: Demi Moore for The Substance. If Anora is truly having a great night, it’s possible that Mikey Madison could spoil here, and that could certainly happen. Moore has enough history that I think she’ll take home the statue, but I would not be surprised if Madison takes it.
Best Actor: Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. But it could very easily go to Timothee Chalamet for A Complete Unknown. The Oscars love a music biopic, and Timothee is a rising star. Plus, Brody has the AI accent thing (which probably shouldn’t matter, but might make the difference).
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana for Emilia Pérez. This one feels like a lock, and maybe the one place that the Academy can award Emilia Pérez without ruffling too many feathers.
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Another near lock.
Best Original Screenplay: Anora. It’s looking like a real Anora sorta night.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave. I think a lot of voters will try to reward it here rather than in Best Picture.
Best Cinematography: The Brutalist. I would love to see Nosferatu get some love here, but I’m guessing there’s more goodwill towards The Brutalist overall that will spill over into an award like this.
Best Film Editing: Conclave
Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two
Best Production Design: Wicked. It’s such a shame that this movie looks as bad as it does, because the production design is genuinely good.
Best Costume Design: Wicked
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance. It’s so funny that this movie is even nominated for awards, honestly.
Best Animated Feature: The Wild Robot. This one is a crapshoot. It could easily go to Flow, though that might be a bit too abstract for the Academy. And I suppose you should never count Pixar out for this award, even if Inside Out 2 doesn’t really have any momentum at all. I’m going with the most conventional choice and it’s worth noting that Chris Sanders is a well respected guy in the industry, and that may sway voters.
Best Documentary: No Other Land. I guess this has the buzz and is likely to be the most politically charged moment of the night.
Best International Feature: I’m Still Here. It’s on the Best Picture ballot, so I’m guessing it’ll gain more traction here.
Best Original Song: El Mal from Emilia Pérez. I have no idea.
Best Original Score: The Brutalist. Sure, why not?
For some reason, these are the only awards that I choose. And I’ve been doing it this way for decades, so I’m not changing now. Anywho, if you’re a weirdo and want to plumb the depths of the Kaedrin archives for old Oscars commentary (if you go far back enough, you can even read what used to be called “liveblogging” of the event, which is what we did before Twitter), all my previous entries are here: [2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004] (I took a couple of years off there for various reasons). If you are watching and on Twitter and/or Bluesky, I’m @mciocco (and when the musical performances start, I’ll be posting alcohol @kaedrinbeer on Twitter). I don’t usually post much, but I’ll be around, retweeting and obsessively reading Film twitter’s commentary/jokes. I will also post the dumb “who should host the Oscars” poll, like I did last year… but we all know that Monstro Elisasue will win, right?