So the NY Times has an article debating the necessity of the various gadgets
. The argument here is that we're seeing a lot of convergence in tech devices, and that many technologies that once warranted a dedicated device are now covered by something else. Let's take a look at their devices, what they said, and what I think:
- Desktop Computer - NYT says to chuck it in favor of laptops. I'm a little more skeptical. Laptops are certainly better now than they've ever been, but I've been hearing about desktop-killers for decades now and I'm not even that old (ditto for thin clients, though the newest hype around the "cloud" computing thing is slightly more appealing - but even that won't supplant desktops entirely). I think desktops will be here to stay. I've got a fair amount of experience with both personal and work laptops, and I have to say that they're both inferior to desktops. This is fine when I need to use the portability, but that's not often enough to justify some of the pain of using laptops. For instance, I'm not sure what kinda graphics capabilities my work laptop has, but it really can't handle my dual-monitor setup, and even on one monitor, the display is definitely crappier than my old desktop (and that thing was ancient). I do think we're going to see some fundamental changes in the desktop/laptop/smartphone realm. The three form factors are all fundamentally useful in their own way, but I'd still expect some sort of convergence in the next decade or so. I'm expecting that smartphones will become ubiquitous, and perhaps become some sort of portable profile that you could use across your various devices. That's a more long term thing though.
- High Speed Internet at Home - NYT says to keep it, and I agree. Until we can get a real 4G network (i.e. not the slightly enhanced 3G stuff the current telecom companies are peddling), there's no real question here.
- Cable TV - NYT plays the "maybe" card on this one, but I think i can go along with that. It all depends on whether you watch TV or not (and/or if you enjoy live TV, like sporting events). I'm on the fence with this one myself. I have cable, and a DVR does make dealing with broadcast television much easier, and I like the opportunities afforded by OnDemand, etc... But it is quite expensive. If I ever get into a situation where I need to start pinching pennies, Cable is going to be among the first things to go.
- Point and Shoot Camera - NYT says to lose it in favor of the smartphone, and I probably agree. Obviously there's still a market for dedicated high-end cameras, but the small point-and-click ones are quickly being outclassed by their fledgling smartphone siblings. My current iPhone camera is kinda crappy (2 MP, no flash), but even that works ok for my purposes. There are definitely times when I wish I had a flash or better quality, but they're relatively rare and I've had this phone for like 3 years now (probably upgrading this summer). My next camera will most likely meet all my photography needs.
- Camcorder - NYT says to lose it, and that makes a sort of sense. As they say, camcorders are getting squeezed from both ends of the spectrum, with smartphones and cheap flip cameras on one end, and high end cameras on the other. I don't really know much about this though. I'm betting that camcorders will still be around, just not quite as popular as before.
- USB Thumb Drive - NYT says lose it, and I think I agree, though not necessarily for the same reasons. They think that the internet means you don't need to use physical media to transfer data anymore. I suppose there's something to that, but my guess is that Smartphones could easily pick up the slack and allow for portable data without a dedicated device. That being said, I've used a thumb drive, like, 3 times in my life.
- Digital Music Player - NYT says ditch it in favor of smartphones, with the added caveat that people who exercise a lot might like a smaller, dedicated device. I can see that, but on a personal level, I have both and don't mind it at all. I don't like using up my phone battery playing music, and I honestly don't really like the iPhone music player interface, so I actually have a regular old iPod nano for music and podcasts (also, I like to have manual control over what music/podcasts get on my device, and that's weird on the iPhone - at least, it used to be). My setup works fine for me most times, and in an emergency, I do have music (and a couple movies) on my iPhone, so I could make due.
- Alarm Clock - NYT says keep it, though I'm not entirely convinced. Then again, I have an alarm clock, so I can't mount much of a offense against it. I've realized, though, that the grand majority of clocks that I use in my house are automatically updated (Cable box, computers, phone) and synced with some external source (no worrying about DST, etc...) My alarm clock isn't, though. I still use my phone as a failsafe for when I know I need to get up early, but that's more based on the possibility of snoozing myself into oblivion (I can easily snooze for well over an hour). I think I may actually end up replacing my clock, but I can see some young whipper-snappers relying on some other device for their wakeup calls...
- GPS Unit - NYT says lose it, and I agree. With the number of smartphone apps (excluding the ones that come with your phone, which are usually functional but still kinda clunky as a full GPS system) that are good at this sort of thing (and a lot cheaper), I can't see how anyone could really justify a dedicated device for this. On a recent trip, a friend used Navigon's Mobile Navigator ($30, and usable on any of his portable devices) and it worked like a charm. Just as good as any GPS I've ever used. The only problem, again, is that it will drain the phone battery (unless you plug it in, which we did).
- Books - NYT says to keep them, and I mostly agree. The only time I can see really wanting to use a dedicated eReader is when travelling, and even then, I'd want it to be a broad device, not dedicated to books. I have considered the Kindle (as it comes down in price), but for now, I'm holding out on a tablet device that will actually have a good enough screen for this sort of thing. Which, I understand, isn't too far off on the horizon. There are a couple of other nice things about digital books though, namely, the ability to easily mark favorite passages, or to do a search (two things that would probably save me a lot of time). I can't see books every going away, but I can see digital readers being a part of my life too.
A lot of these made me think of Neal Stephenson's System of the World
. In that book, one of the characters ponders how new systems supplant older systems:
"It has been my view for some years that a new System of the World is being created around us. I used to suppose that it would drive out and annihilate any older Systems. But things I have seen recently ... have convinced me that new Systems never replace old ones, but only surround and encapsulate them, even as, under a microscope, we may see that living within our bodies are animalcules, smaller and simpler than us, and yet thriving even as we thrive. ... And so I say that Alchemy shall not vanish, as I always hoped. Rather, it shall be encapsulated within the new System of the World, and become a familiar and even comforting presence there, though its name may change and its practitioners speak no more about the Philosopher's Stone." (page 639)
That sort of "surround and encapsulate" concept seems broadly applicable to a lot of technology, actually.